Narrative thread · 13 events · Forecast hits 7/15

Middle East

Symbolic image

In Gaza gilt seit November 2025 ein Waffenstillstand, nachdem der UN-Sicherheitsrat mit Resolution 2803 den von den USA vermittelten „Umfassenden Plan zur Beendigung des Gaza-Konflikts" gebilligt hatte und alle Geiseln freikamen; dennoch kommt es weiterhin zu Gewalt, und die humanitäre Lage bleibt schwierig. Verhandlungen im Juni 2026 in Ägypten über die Entwaffnung der Hamas, den israelischen Truppenabzug und eine Nachkriegsordnung blieben ergebnislos, da beide Seiten an unvereinbaren Positionen festhalten. Parallel dazu unterzeichneten die USA und der Iran am 17. Juni das Islamabad-Memorandum zur Beendigung des seit Ende Februar laufenden Kriegs, das unter anderem eine 60-tägige Verhandlungsfrist zum iranischen Atomprogramm vorsah; erste Gespräche dazu fanden am 21. Juni in der Schweiz statt, wurden aber von neuen wechselseitigen Angriffen zwischen den USA und dem Iran überschattet. In Libanon sorgte eine Anfang Juni in Washington ausgehandelte Waffenruhe für einen Rückgang der Gewalt um rund 35 Prozent. Mitte Juli 2026 bleibt die Region trotz mehrerer Abkommen von anhaltender Unsicherheit geprägt, nachdem US-Präsident Trump die Iran-Waffenruhe nach neuen Angriffen für beendet erklärt hatte.

ACLEDSecurity Council ReportJerusalem Post

Timeline in detail

Monday, 20 July 2026Geopolitics

Thousands of Israelis march to the Gaza border and demand new settlements

Thousands of Israelis, including settlers and right-wing activists, marched to the Gaza Strip border and demanded the rebuilding of Jewish settlements in the territory. At the same time, Israeli media report deadly settler violence in the West Bank. Figures on the number of participants diverge widely.

The settler organization Nachala called for a 'march of thousands' to the Gaza border to press the government to bring back Jewish settlements more than two decades after the 2005 withdrawal; according to Le Monde, right-wing ministers also took part. Figures on the size vary widely: the organizers spoke of more than 10,000 participants, Israeli media of only a few hundred. In parallel, the left-liberal Israeli daily Haaretz reports deadly incidents in the West Bank: in a settler assault, according to army figures, two Palestinians were shot dead, and an editorial calls on the army to stop the killing of children. Turkey's state-aligned Daily Sabah foregrounds the death of a 17-year-old Palestinian footballer after a settler attack. Human-rights groups and a UN report interpret the accelerated settlement expansion as a strategy of displacement, while the Israeli right presents it as a matter of security and return. Critics within Israel itself warn, according to Haaretz, of a looming clash in the West Bank.

Le MondeHaaretzDaily Sabah

Monday, 20 July 2026GeopoliticsNetanyahu attacks New York mayor Mamdani after arrest threat

Netanyahu attacks New York mayor Mamdani after arrest threat

After New York mayor Zohran Mamdani said he would have a possible arrest of Benjamin Netanyahu examined during a visit, the Israeli head of government hit back sharply. Mamdani had earlier called Netanyahu a 'war criminal' who 'belongs in The Hague.'

The dispute between the Israeli prime minister and the New York mayor escalated after Mamdani announced he would have Netanyahu's arrest examined in the event of a visit. Conservative outlets such as the FAZ and Die Welt mainly reflect Netanyahu's view: his office accused Mamdani of trying to distract from his 'own missteps' with the move, and called the International Criminal Court a 'sham court' with no jurisdiction over Americans or Israelis. Mamdani, for his part, called Netanyahu a 'war criminal' who 'belongs in The Hague.' The left-liberal New York Times places the exchange within a longer conversation with the mayor, in which he also speaks about Andy Burnham. Serbia's B92 soberly recounts the Israeli outrage. The backdrop is the ICC arrest warrant against Netanyahu over his conduct in Gaza, whose reach and legitimacy are fiercely contested between the camps.

FAZDie WeltNew York TimesB92

Forecast · Assessment

Most likely60%
The dispute remains a verbal exchange with symbolic impact, without legal consequences for Netanyahu.
Worst case25%
The confrontation deepens the rift between Israel and parts of the US Democrats and further strains the relationship.
Best case15%
Both sides de-escalate, and the incident remains an episode in the US election campaign.

Monday, 20 July 2026GeopoliticsNinth night of the US-Iran war: third US soldier dead, tanker ablaze in Hormuz

Ninth night of the US-Iran war: third US soldier dead, tanker ablaze in Hormuz

For the ninth night running, US forces struck targets in Iran; in northern Iraq another US soldier was killed while detonating an Iranian drone. Tehran reported attacks on US bases in Kuwait and an aerial target in Jordan, while in the Strait of Hormuz a ship was once again on fire. The oil price rose above 90 dollars.

For the ninth night in a row the US military said it carried out strikes against command centers and communications networks in Iran; President Trump declared the attacks were carried out 'in honor of' fallen soldiers. Confirmed is the death of another US soldier while detonating an Iranian drone in northern Iraq, bringing the number of recent US dead to three (Al Jazeera counts 17 since the start of the war). Western outlets such as the Guardian and the New York Times stress that a preliminary peace plan foundered over the dispute about the Strait of Hormuz and that, according to Energy Secretary Wright, the US mission has shifted primarily to securing oil flows; critics speak of a 'war of choice.' Iranian and state-aligned sources such as Global Times and Serbia's Politika report explosions in several cities and accuse the US of hitting civilian facilities and the Darkhovin nuclear power plant. Tehran reported missile attacks on the Ali Al Salem air base in Kuwait and on US aircraft at Jordan's Aqaba airport; according to B92, Iran is even weighing a ground push against US bases in Kuwait. In the Strait of Hormuz another tanker was ablaze, yet Washington insists that around two-thirds of shipping traffic continues to run. The US is deploying additional fighter jets to the region, and diplomats warn, according to Haaretz, of a slide into an all-out regional war.

Die WeltThe GuardianAl JazeeraPolitikaHandelsblatt

Forecast · Assessment

Most likely50%
The nightly exchange of US strikes and Iranian retaliation continues, without the US eliminating Iran's nuclear program or Tehran fully closing the Strait of Hormuz.
Worst case30%
Iran makes good on its threat, attacks US bases in Kuwait on the ground or closes the strait, and the war widens into an open regional war drawing in Israel.
Best case20%
Mediation by the Gulf states and mounting domestic pressure in the US force a ceasefire and fresh negotiations within days.

Sunday, 19 July 2026GeopoliticsCivilian casualties in Israeli air strikes on the Gaza Strip

Civilian casualties in Israeli air strikes on the Gaza Strip

Israeli air strikes on the Gaza Strip killed at least ten people, including three children and five members of one family, according to Palestinian sources. One strike hit a funeral gathering, rescue workers said. Israel's military points to a Hamas target.

The Hamas-run civil defence authority reported that Israeli strikes over the weekend killed at least ten to eleven people in Gaza City and the centre of the territory, among them three children and five members of one family. The conservative FAZ relays the Israeli account, according to which the target was a Hamas terrorist. Le Monde cites the casualty figure on the authority of the civil defence agency and the receiving hospital, noting that the rescue services report to Hamas. Turkey's Daily Sabah foregrounds a deadly strike on a funeral gathering with seven killed and 22 injured. The evidence remains difficult to assess, as independent verification on the ground is barely possible and the casualty figures come from Palestinian sources. The reports agree that civilians are once again among the dead; what remains disputed is who bears responsibility and whether those hit were fighters.

Frankfurter Allgemeine ZeitungLe MondeDaily SabahDeutschlandfunk

Forecast · Assessment

Most likely60%
Isolated deadly air strikes with civilian casualties continue, without any short-term change to the underlying military and diplomatic pattern.
Worst case20%
An expansion of the strikes drastically worsens the humanitarian situation in Gaza and increases international pressure on Israel.
Best case20%
International pressure leads to a ceasefire and independent investigations into the deadly strikes.

Sunday, 19 July 2026GeopoliticsEighth night of the US-Iran war: fresh retaliatory strikes after two US soldiers killed

Eighth night of the US-Iran war: fresh retaliatory strikes after two US soldiers killed

After two American soldiers were killed in an Iranian attack in Jordan, the US carried out fresh air strikes on southern Iran for the eighth night running. Tehran shelled US-linked targets in Kuwait and, according to the FT, struck Saudi Arabia again for the first time in months. The number of US soldiers killed rose to 16.

Overnight into Sunday, US forces continued their strikes on Iranian targets, damaging a tunnel and three bridges in Hormozgan province according to the governor's office and hitting drinking-water facilities in the south. The trigger for the latest escalation was the death of two US soldiers in an Iranian missile and drone attack on Jordan, with a third soldier reported missing. President Trump announced retaliation, and US Central Command reported that another round of strikes had been completed. Western outlets such as the Sueddeutsche Zeitung and the New York Times stress the growing fear of the war widening and Trump's baffled search for a strategy. Iranian and Chinese state media emphasise that Tehran is deliberately striking US military bases in Kuwait and adapting to American air defences, while the Serbian paper Politika reports on an alleged order from Trump for CENTCOM to open the „gates of hell“. Turkey's Daily Sabah foregrounds the civilian toll, reporting that the US strikes have left at least 10,000 people in southern Iran without drinking water. The camps agree that the ceasefire agreed in June is effectively dead and that neither side has so far backed down.

Süddeutsche ZeitungNew York TimesFinancial TimesDaily SabahPolitika

Forecast · Assessment

Most likely50%
The exchange of nightly US strikes and Iranian retaliation continues, without the US destroying Iran's nuclear facilities or Tehran fully closing the Strait of Hormuz.
Worst case30%
Iran moves into the offensive phase it has announced, effectively closes the strait and hits further Gulf bases, and the war spreads across the region.
Best case20%
Mediation pressure from the Gulf states and growing war fatigue force a ceasefire and talks on shipping within days.

Saturday, 18 July 2026GeopoliticsIsraeli strike on Gaza funeral kills at least seven as EU steps up settlement pressure

Israeli strike on Gaza funeral kills at least seven as EU steps up settlement pressure

An Israeli airstrike on a funeral in the Gaza Strip killed at least seven people and wounded 22, according to Palestinian sources. The Israeli military said it had hit an Islamic Jihad cell and acknowledged that bystanders may also have been harmed. At the same time, pressure is growing within the EU to sanction Israel over the expansion of settlements.

According to reports, the strike hit the funeral of a Palestinian who had been killed earlier. Hamas called it a “brutal massacre” of mourners, while the Israeli military said it had deliberately struck a cell of the Palestinian Islamic Jihad and was aware of reports of uninvolved victims. Even the death toll is disputed, seven according to Palestinian sources and eight according to others. In parallel, the dispute over the West Bank is escalating: Al Jazeera reports growing EU pressure for sanctions as settlers attacked children, and Israel's Haaretz documents how settlers, under army protection, drove off Palestinian livestock. After long wrangling, Ireland adopted an import ban on goods from occupied territories but exempted services, causing dispute even among critics. Israeli, Palestinian and European accounts of the events thus stand irreconcilably side by side.

New York TimesLe MondeAl Jazeerataz

Forecast · Assessment

Most likely55%
Individual deadly strikes and settler violence continue, and the EU wrangles over sanctions without a unified line, with no fundamental turning point.
Worst case25%
Escalation in Gaza and the West Bank leads to an open rupture between the EU and Israel, complete with sanctions and a diplomatic crisis.
Best case20%
International pressure forces a settlement freeze, an investigation into the strike and a de-escalation.

Saturday, 18 July 2026GeopoliticsSeventh night of war: US strikes southern Iran, Tehran threatens an “offensive phase”

Seventh night of war: US strikes southern Iran, Tehran threatens an “offensive phase”

For the seventh consecutive time, the US military struck targets in Iran overnight, including bridges, rail lines and underground weapons depots in the south of the country. Tehran retaliated against US-linked sites in Kuwait, Jordan and Bahrain, where missiles were intercepted, and reported explosions near the Strait of Hormuz. An adviser to Iran's leadership warned that the country would move from retaliation to an offensive phase.

US Central Command said it was continuing the strikes to degrade Iran's armed forces; Iranian state media showed damage to bridges, rail lines and other infrastructure. Near the Strait of Hormuz, two oil tankers caught fire after explosions, sharpening fears of an energy price shock. Accounts of the scale diverge widely: Le Monde, citing Tehran, reports three dead in strikes in the south, Jordan said it shot down ten missiles, and Serbia's Politika writes of several wounded US soldiers as well as a US drone allegedly downed over Bushehr. Al Jazeera and the Gulf perspective emphasize Iran's retaliatory strikes on Kuwait and Bahrain, while The New York Times highlights the regional widening of the war. From Israel, the press reports that the US is deploying refueling aircraft to the region. Reliable casualty figures are still lacking, and each side frames the course of events as its own success.

Al JazeeraNew York TimesLe MondePolitikaBBC News

Forecast · Assessment

Most likely55%
The exchange of strikes and retaliation continues for days without the US destroying the underground nuclear facilities or Iran fully closing the Strait of Hormuz.
Worst case25%
Iran moves to the announced offensive phase, effectively closes the strait and hits further Gulf bases, and the war spreads across the region.
Best case20%
Mediation pressure from the Gulf states forces a ceasefire within days and talks on shipping.

Friday, 17 July 2026GeopoliticsSixth night: US widens strikes on southern Iran, Tehran shells Gulf states

Sixth night: US widens strikes on southern Iran, Tehran shells Gulf states

For the sixth consecutive night, the US military struck bridges, an airport and infrastructure in southern Iran and boarded a tanker in the Gulf of Oman to enforce the port blockade. Iran launched retaliatory strikes on US-linked targets in Kuwait, Bahrain and Qatar, where drones and missiles were intercepted. Accounts diverge widely over the death toll and whether the targets were civilian or military.

The Pentagon declared the latest wave of strikes over and described the targets as purely military, aimed at cutting Iranian supply routes, as the Wall Street Journal and the FAZ also report. Iranian state media, Xinhua and Al Jazeera, by contrast, speak of attacks on civilian infrastructure, of bridges, a railway station hit and power outages, and of at least seven killed and 16 wounded. Explosions were reported in the port city of Bandar Abbas and near Bushehr, home to the country's only active nuclear power plant. Tehran responded with strikes on the Gulf states: Kuwait reported 32 intercepted drones, and falling debris sparked fires, according to Al Jazeera and B92. Russian and Serbian state media such as TASS and Politika report pointedly on the destruction of bridges and possible US plans for strikes against the underground nuclear facility Pickaxe. Western sources such as the BBC and Le Monde stress the widening of targets deeper into the country's interior, while the White House, according to Politico, still considers a deal possible. All camps agree that the Strait of Hormuz is not fully closed, though Iran is now also threatening a blockade in the Red Sea.

FAZAl JazeeraTASSLe MondeBBC News

Forecast · Assessment

Most likely55%
The exchange of strikes and reprisals continues for days without the US destroying the underground nuclear facilities or Iran fully closing the Strait of Hormuz.
Worst case25%
The US bombs Iran's power and civilian infrastructure widely, Iran closes the strait and hits further Gulf bases, and the war spreads across the region.
Best case20%
Mediation pressure from the Gulf states forces a ceasefire and talks on shipping within days.

Thursday, 16 July 2026GeopoliticsAmid the fighting: Iran releases US citizen held since 2024

Amid the fighting: Iran releases US citizen held since 2024

Iran has released Iranian-American dual national Dena Karari, who had been held on espionage charges since December 2024. President Trump said she was "safely out of Iran and in good condition" and thanked Tehran. The release comes in the middle of the military escalation between the two states.

Dena Karari, an Iranian-American dual citizen whose passport had been confiscated in December 2024 and who had since been barred from leaving the country, has been released, according to Washington. Trump announced the news on Truth Social, describing a wrongfully detained person who was now safe, and expressly thanked Iran. The New York Times and the Guardian frame the move as a rare signal of limited understanding, even as US fighter jets continue to strike Iranian targets. The conservative Welt links the release to the simultaneous explosions near Tehran and the disabling of an oil tanker, stressing the contrast between the humanitarian gesture and the ongoing war. Tehran itself gave no detailed rationale, leaving room for interpretation as to whether it was a show of trust, a negotiating signal, or an isolated humanitarian decision. The sourcing on the precise circumstances of the release remains thin.

New York TimesThe GuardianDie Welt

Forecast · Assessment

Most likely55%
The release remains an isolated humanitarian gesture, without leading to negotiations or a de-escalation of the war.
Worst case20%
The gesture fizzles out as Iran holds other dual nationals or Western citizens as bargaining chips and the conflict escalates further.
Best case25%
The exchange proves to be a first step of quiet contacts that open a channel for a later ceasefire.

Thursday, 16 July 2026GeopoliticsUS-Iran war escalates further: second wave of strikes, naval blockade, and threat of "existential war"

US-Iran war escalates further: second wave of strikes, naval blockade, and threat of "existential war"

Within a single day, the US military flew a second wave of strikes against Iranian coastal defenses and missile positions and reimposed the naval blockade of Iran's ports. Tehran spoke of an "existential war" with America, threatened to halt further energy exports, and reported drone attacks on US bases in Jordan. For the first time, targets in northern Iran were also hit.

According to US Central Command, on Wednesday the US military launched a second wave of strikes on the same day, hitting Iranian coastal defense installations and missile positions after having earlier renewed the naval blockade of Iranian ports. Iran declared it was in an "existential war" with the United States and threatened to cut off further regional energy exports; on Thursday morning the Iranian army reported drone attacks on US military installations in Jordan. The Western-oriented sources (Daily Maverick, FAZ, Haaretz) emphasize the growing US firepower, the pressure on Tehran, the first-time expansion of the strikes into the north of the country, and the disabling of an oil tanker. Al Jazeera, by contrast, highlights the civilian damage and quotes an Iranian doctor as saying a US strike damaged a children's cancer clinic; this account comes from an Iranian source and could not be independently confirmed. Serbia's B92 speaks matter-of-factly of a "second strike" and reports the CENTCOM statement. In parallel, Trump praised Tehran's release of a US citizen, which points to narrow channels amid the escalation. The ceasefire brokered by Washington the previous week is now definitively history.

Daily MaverickLe MondeFAZAl JazeeraB92

Forecast · Assessment

Most likely55%
The exchange of strikes and retaliation continues for days without the US destroying the underground nuclear facilities or Iran fully closing the Strait of Hormuz.
Worst case25%
Trump has Iran's power grid and civilian infrastructure bombed, Iran closes the strait and fires on further US bases, and the war spreads across the region.
Best case20%
Mediation pressure from the Gulf states forces a new ceasefire within days along with talks on shipping.

Wednesday, 15 July 2026GeopoliticsU.S.-Iran war escalates: new waves of strikes, naval blockade and threat against Iran's infrastructure

U.S.-Iran war escalates: new waves of strikes, naval blockade and threat against Iran's infrastructure

The U.S. military has struck targets in Iran again and reinstated its naval blockade of Iranian ports with more than 20 warships; the Revolutionary Guards shelled U.S. bases in Kuwait, Bahrain and Jordan. President Trump is threatening to hit power plants and bridges next and says the strikes will continue "until I say it's enough." The Washington-brokered ceasefire has thus collapsed for good.

Overnight, U.S. Central Command said it flew another wave of strikes against missile, drone and air-defense positions in Iran, while Tehran responded with blows against U.S. bases in Kuwait, Bahrain and Jordan; a hit on a Kuwaiti naval vessel wounded four soldiers. The camps agree on the bare sequence of events, with Western and state-aligned media alike reporting fresh strikes and counterstrikes. They diverge on the interpretation: The New York Times and the Financial Times describe a president who has found an adversary he cannot force to back down and who lacks a strategy, while the FAZ and Die Zeit foreground Trump's threat against power plants and bridges as an attack on civilian infrastructure. Qatar's Al Jazeera quotes Trump's declaration that the strikes will go on "until I say it's enough" and frames the blockade as pressure of dubious legality under international law; Serbia's Politika soberly reports the CENTCOM confirmation and the hit on the Kuwaiti ship. Iran, through Deputy Foreign Minister Gharibabadi, declared the memorandum of understanding with the United States void, a signal that the diplomatic channel is dead for now. Die Zeit is already asking whether Iran is becoming a "failed state," which would make it both weak and dangerous. Observers across the spectrum agree that no end is in sight and that the real question of power, control over the Strait of Hormuz, remains unresolved.

FAZNew York TimesFinancial TimesAl JazeeraPolitika

Forecast · Assessment

Most likely55%
The exchange of overnight strikes and retaliation continues, without the United States hitting the underground nuclear facilities or Iran fully closing Hormuz.
Worst case20%
Trump makes good on his threat and strikes Iran's power grid and civilian infrastructure, Iran closes the strait, and the war spreads across the region.
Best case25%
Mediation pressure from the Gulf states forces a new ceasefire and talks on shipping within days.

Monday, 13 July 2026GeopoliticsIsrael's parliament makes it easier for the ultra-Orthodox to refuse military service

Israel's parliament makes it easier for the ultra-Orthodox to refuse military service

The Knesset has passed a controversial law that makes it easier for ultra-Orthodox Jews to refuse military service. Critics see it as an affront to the fighting troops. The debate divides Israeli society in the middle of the war.

Deutschlandfunk reports that Israel's parliament has passed a law that eases military service for the Haredim. The center-left Haaretz comments sharply: the "Torah study law spits in the soldiers' faces," and accuses the ultra-Orthodox of letting secular Tel Avivians die for the flag while they themselves remain in the yeshiva. The sources here are deliberately domestic Israeli and clearly critical of the law; a detailed defense from the religious camp is missing, so the picture comes out one-sidedly at the expense of the Haredim. The dispute hits Israel at a time when conscription is already strained by the ongoing state of war.

DeutschlandfunkHaaretz

Forecast · Assessment

Most likely55%
The law takes effect and deepens the social divide without immediately breaking up the governing coalition.
Worst case20%
The conflict escalates into mass protests and a government crisis in the middle of the war.
Best case25%
Courts or political pressure force a compromise that distributes the burden of service more fairly.

Monday, 13 July 2026GeopoliticsUS strikes Iran for a third night, Tehran hits back

US strikes Iran for a third night, Tehran hits back

The US military flew its third consecutive wave of strikes against Iranian targets overnight, while the Revolutionary Guards responded with missiles against bases in the region. Trump openly threatened to destroy underground nuclear facilities. Washington and Tehran have effectively returned to open war.

According to US Central Command, the attack began around 22:45 Central European Time and hit military targets at several locations in Iran; more than 50,000 US soldiers are stationed in the region. Iran fired missiles at a US air base in Jordan, whose military intercepted four projectiles, and Bahrain and Saudi Arabia's Abha airport also reported attacks (Houthi retaliation). Western mainstream outlets (NYT, Zeit) portray a controlled but rapidly escalating situation; Serbia's Politika (state-aligned) and Qatar's Al Jazeera place greater emphasis on US aggression and Trump's threat against the nuclear mountain "Pickaxe Mountain." The NYT also reports on a failed Israeli operation to build up former President Ahmadinejad as a tool for regime change. Iranian voices barely feature directly in the available sources, and the picture remains dominated by Western and Gulf Arab perspectives. What is undisputed: the brief ceasefire is over, and the front line now runs openly.

New York TimesDie ZeitAl JazeeraReuters

Forecast · Assessment

Most likely60%
The exchange of blows continues with further nighttime strikes and retaliation, without either side risking a major attack on nuclear facilities or a ground offensive.
Worst case15%
The US attacks the underground nuclear facilities, Iran closes the Strait of Hormuz completely, and the conflict widens into a regional war involving Gulf states and Israel.
Best case25%
Mediation pressure from London and the Gulf states leads within days to a renewed ceasefire and talks on shipping.