Monday, 20 July 2026 · GeopoliticsPutin receives North Korea's foreign minister and thanks her for wartime support
Kremlin leader Putin received North Korea's foreign minister in Moscow and explicitly thanked Pyongyang for its support in the Ukraine war. The meeting follows a visit by a senior Chinese official to North Korea. Observers see it as a sign of the tightening Moscow-Pyongyang-Beijing axis.
In talks at the Kremlin, Vladimir Putin thanked North Korea for its help in the war against Ukraine, as China's state agency Xinhua and the US agency Bloomberg report in agreement. Bloomberg frames the meeting as part of a deepening cooperation, flanked shortly beforehand by a visit from China's number four to Pyongyang. According to Western sources, Pyongyang has supplied Russia with soldiers and munitions, making the war more sustainable for Moscow. Western observers read this as a threatening bloc-building among authoritarian states; the state-aligned Chinese account, by contrast, emphasizes the character of normal diplomatic relations. In the same context, Le Monde notes that a Turkish grain freighter in the Black Sea was hit by Russian missiles and five people died. The evidence on concrete agreements from the meeting is thin and rests mainly on official statements.
Bloomberg · Le Monde · Xinhua
Monday, 20 July 2026 · GeopoliticsUkraine war: more than 400 drones on the Moscow region, Russia shells Kyiv
Ukraine war: more than 400 drones on the Moscow region, Russia shells Kyiv
After one of the heaviest Russian missile attacks on Kyiv since the war began, more than 400 Ukrainian drones targeted the Moscow region overnight; according to the mayor, they were 'largely' intercepted. Ukrainian strikes on Wildberries warehouses near Moscow killed at least eight people. The EU, meanwhile, is wrangling over new sanctions on Russia.
Russia hit Kyiv overnight into Sunday with one of the largest ballistic waves of attacks since the war began; residents told the taz of impacts 'coming by the minute.' The following night, according to Moscow's mayor, more than 400 Ukrainian drones targeted the capital region and were 'largely' intercepted. Ukrainian and Western sources such as Le Monde and Le Figaro stress the increasingly effective drone strategy against Russian logistics and the 'shadow fleet'; the independent Russian outlet Meduza describes chaos and a lack of compensation after fires at two Wildberries warehouses near Moscow and in Tambov, where at least eight people died and more than 80 were injured. Serbia's state-aligned Politika, by contrast, highlights three children injured in a drone attack on the Russian village of Razumnoye and reports that Russia shot down more than 5,000 Ukrainian drones. Each side foregrounds the civilian casualties of the other. The attacks are overshadowed by a domestic crisis in Kyiv surrounding the overhaul of the military and government leadership. The Financial Times also reports that EU support for a new sanctions package is crumbling, because individual capitals reject measures against large corporations.
Le Monde · taz · Meduza · Politika · Financial Times
Forecast · Assessment
●Most likely60%
The Russian missile attacks and the Ukrainian counterstrikes on Russian logistics continue in the familiar pattern, without the front lines shifting significantly.
▲Worst case20%
The reciprocal long-range strikes spread to critical infrastructure and civilian targets, driving casualty figures and escalation sharply upward.
▼Best case20%
New Western air-defense deliveries and diplomatic pressure noticeably dampen the attacks on Kyiv.
Sunday, 19 July 2026 · EconomyUkrainian drone attack on Wildberries depot kills eight in Russia
Ukrainian drone attack on Wildberries depot kills eight in Russia
Ukrainian drones hit two logistics centres of the Russian online retailer Wildberries in the Moscow and Tambov regions; eight night-shift workers were killed and more than 50 injured. Kiev described the depots as major logistics facilities holding sanctioned components. The damage is estimated at 50 billion roubles.
In the early hours of 18 July, Ukrainian drones hit two Wildberries logistics centres in the Moscow and Tambov regions; at the plant in Kotovsk, according to the Russian exile outlet Meduza, seven night-shift workers were killed and 25 injured, with a total of eight people dead and more than 50 injured. President Zelensky said the attacks had hit depots holding components for drone production; the BBC quotes him describing them as major logistics facilities for sanctioned components. Meduza puts the damage at around 50 billion roubles and up to 15 percent of the storage space, noting that Wildberries and its rival Ozon contractually pass compensation for war damage on to the small traders. Turkey's Daily Sabah foregrounds the killed warehouse workers and an additional fire at an oil depot near Moscow. Across the camps, the case shows how tightly civilian online retail and military supply chains are interwoven in Russia; what is disputed is whether the depots were legitimate military targets. The civilian casualties among the night-shift workers also raise questions of proportionality.
Meduza · BBC News · Daily Sabah
Forecast · Assessment
●Most likely60%
The Ukrainian deep strikes on Russian logistics continue, Russia responds with attacks on Ukrainian cities, and the front does not shift.
▲Worst case20%
The attacks on civilian-use infrastructure and the casualty figures escalate and draw the war economy and civilian population further into harm.
▼Best case20%
The mutual pressure on the supply chains ultimately promotes negotiations on a de-escalation of the long-range strikes.
Sunday, 19 July 2026 · GeopoliticsZelensky weighs removing army chief Syrsky after protests
Zelensky weighs removing army chief Syrsky after protests
After the dismissal of popular defence minister Fedorov and days of street protests, President Zelensky is weighing the removal of commander-in-chief Syrsky, according to the FT and Meduza. Zelensky announced decisions on the army's leadership and is meeting commanders. The government crisis is also alarming the EU.
The dismissal of defence minister Mykhailo Fedorov, the architect of Ukraine's drone strategy, has triggered a wave of protests now directed against commander-in-chief Oleksandr Syrsky, with whom Fedorov had clashed in office. According to the Financial Times and the Russian exile outlet Meduza, Zelensky is weighing whether to dismiss Syrsky as commander-in-chief and is gathering military commanders over the weekend. The conservative FAZ quotes Zelensky promising to listen to the demonstrators and to decide soon on the army's leadership. The Serbian paper Politika highlights the military crisis and the mass protests, while the independent B92 reads Zelensky's appearance as a climbdown. From an EU perspective, the Berliner Zeitung warns that with Fedorov's departure Brussels loses its most important partner for drones and accession talks. Across the camps, the reshuffle is seen as a make-or-break test for Kiev's leadership in the middle of the war, with interpretations swinging between necessary renewal and dangerous self-weakening.
Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung · Meduza · Financial Times · Politika · Berliner Zeitung
Forecast · Assessment
●Most likely55%
Zelensky pushes through the overhaul of the military leadership, the protests gradually subside, and presidential control over the army is consolidated.
▲Worst case25%
The rupture with the military and the street weakens the successful drone strategy and destabilises the leadership in the midst of the Russian offensive.
▼Best case20%
A new, broadly backed military leadership pools procurement and innovation more effectively and improves Kiev's position at the front.
Sunday, 19 July 2026 · GeopoliticsMassive Russian missile attack on Kiev, a day after a Ukrainian strike inside Russia
Massive Russian missile attack on Kiev, a day after a Ukrainian strike inside Russia
Russia has again attacked Kiev with ballistic missiles; at least one person was killed, several were injured and fires broke out. The attack came a day after deadly Ukrainian drone strikes on Russian logistics depots. Since June, Russia has increasingly hit the capital with missiles that are hard to intercept.
Overnight, according to Ukrainian sources, ballistic missiles struck Kiev, setting off several fires and causing deaths and injuries. Le Monde places the attack in a wider series: since June the capital has been regularly shelled with fast, hard-to-intercept missiles, and the latest strike follows directly on deadly Ukrainian drone attacks on Russian soil. Germany's Handelsblatt stresses the force of the massive attack and the despair of residents who cannot find any respite. China's state agency Xinhua reports tersely of „massive explosions“ in the Ukrainian capital, without assigning blame. At their core, the accounts from all camps agree that the war is in a phase of mutual long-range strikes, with both sides targeting the other's infrastructure and logistics. What remains disputed is only how responsibility and proportionality are interpreted.
Le Monde · Handelsblatt · Deutschlandfunk
Forecast · Assessment
●Most likely60%
Russian missile attacks and Ukrainian counter-strikes on Russian logistics continue in the familiar pattern, without the front lines shifting significantly. ✓
▲Worst case20%
The mutual long-range strikes spread to critical infrastructure and civilian targets, driving casualty figures and escalation sharply higher.
▼Best case20%
New Western air-defence deliveries and diplomatic pressure noticeably ease the attacks on Kiev.
Saturday, 18 July 2026 · GeopoliticsSecond day of protests in Ukraine as Zelensky makes General Chmara defense minister
Second day of protests in Ukraine as Zelensky makes General Chmara defense minister
In several Ukrainian cities, people protested for a second day against the dismissal of Defense Minister Mykhailo Fedorov. President Zelensky appointed General Yevhen Chmara as acting minister, a move critics call a violation of Ukrainian law. The dismissal has also drawn clear discontent from within the army.
After the surprise removal of Fedorov, regarded as the architect of Ukraine's successful drone strategy, people again took to the streets from Lviv to Kharkiv to demand his return. The Russian opposition exile outlet Meduza and Reuters both report protests spanning two days, while the BBC stresses the anger of many soldiers over the personnel decision. Le Figaro traces how the general named as interim minister, Chmara, should not actually be able to hold the post under Ukrainian law. At the same time, Zelensky also reshuffled the SBU intelligence service and installed a new acting chief there. Critics see the shake-up as a consolidation of presidential control in the midst of war, while supporters point to the need for tighter procurement. How the change will affect the conduct of the war remains open.
Deutschlandfunk · BBC News · Meduza · Le Figaro · B92
Forecast · Assessment
●Most likely55%
Zelensky pushes the shake-up through, Chmara or another confidant stays in office, the protests subside, and the war effort continues.
▲Worst case25%
The conflict with the military and the street weakens the successful drone strategy and the leadership in the middle of the war.
▼Best case20%
A new leadership team pools procurement and innovation more effectively and improves Kyiv's military position.
Friday, 17 July 2026 · GeopoliticsKyiv in turmoil: Zelensky dismisses Defense Minister Fedorov and sides with the generals
Kyiv in turmoil: Zelensky dismisses Defense Minister Fedorov and sides with the generals
President Zelensky dismissed Defense Minister Mykhailo Fedorov and named intelligence chief Yevhenii Chmara as acting successor. The trigger was an open conflict between the ministry and army chief Syrskyi, in which Zelensky took the generals' side. The removal set off protests and an unusually public rift in the military leadership.
Fedorov was regarded as a reformer who had massively expanded drone production and streamlined procurement, writes the Russian exile outlet Meduza, which describes him as the man who cut Russia off from Starlink and flooded the front with drones. Politico and the New York Times report Zelensky's frustration with the constant feud between Fedorov and chief of the general staff Syrskyi, now being fought out in public, including from a parking garage. Russian and pro-Russian sources read the move as a weakening of Kyiv: TASS cites reports of a rift in the leadership, and the Serbian Politika writes that Zelensky, in choosing between Fedorov's reforms and Syrskyi's Soviet-style warfare, risks tipping the course of the war in Russia's favor. Le Monde and Le Figaro stress that Zelensky is overriding the demonstrators, and place the reshuffle within a broader government overhaul that includes a new prime minister. The taz speaks of airing dirty laundry in the middle of the war. All camps agree that the power struggle brings uncertainty about Ukraine's conduct of the war at a delicate moment.
Meduza · New York Times · Politico Europe · TASS · Politika
Forecast · Assessment
●Most likely55%
Chmara or another Zelensky confidant runs the ministry, and the reshuffle tightens presidential control without fundamentally changing the conduct of the war. ✓
▲Worst case25%
The change weakens the successful drone strategy, deepens the break with the military and damages morale at the front.
▼Best case20%
A new leadership pools procurement and innovation more effectively and improves Kyiv's military position.
Thursday, 16 July 2026 · GeopoliticsZelensky dismisses Defense Minister Fedorov in the midst of war
Zelensky dismisses Defense Minister Fedorov in the midst of war
The Ukrainian president has unexpectedly pushed out Defense Minister Mykhailo Fedorov, a champion of drone warfare, after six months in office. Interior Minister Ihor Klymenko is reportedly in line to succeed him. The move triggered bewilderment and protests, with a prominent volunteer calling it a "fatal mistake."
In a surprise cabinet reshuffle, President Volodymyr Zelensky has removed Defense Minister Mykhailo Fedorov, regarded as a reformer and driving force of Ukraine's drone and robotic warfare. The New York Times attributes the departure to ongoing conflicts with the military top brass and with defense firms over the role of innovative weapons. Politico quotes a prominent military volunteer as saying this was "a fatal mistake that will cost us dearly," and describes Fedorov as a popular reformer. The Russian exile newspaper Meduza reports matter-of-factly that Interior Minister Ihor Klymenko is to take over the post, stressing the short six-month tenure. Le Monde highlights that the departure of the very popular minister comes in the middle of a Ukrainian offensive in Crimea and has triggered bewilderment nationwide as well as solidarity rallies announced for Thursday. Government-aligned voices interpret the move as a consolidation of Zelensky's control, critics as a weakening of a successful arms policy; an official justification from the president is still pending.
Politico Europe · New York Times · Le Monde · Meduza · Die Zeit
Forecast · Assessment
●Most likely55%
Klymenko or another Zelensky loyalist takes over, and the reshuffle cements presidential control without fundamentally changing the conduct of the war. ✓
▲Worst case20%
The change weakens the successful drone strategy, sharpens tensions with the military, and damages morale at the front.
▼Best case25%
A new minister bundles procurement and innovation more effectively and improves Kyiv's military position.
Thursday, 16 July 2026 · GeopoliticsRussian missiles hit Kyiv, fires in the capital
Russian missiles hit Kyiv, fires in the capital
Russia again struck Kyiv with ballistic missiles; explosions were heard in the city during the air-raid alert, and Mayor Klitschko reported several fires. The attacks came shortly after the signing of a drone agreement between the EU and Ukraine. At the same time, Russia accused Kyiv of killing a nuclear plant's chief engineer.
Overnight, Russian ballistic missiles again struck Kyiv; the news agency AFP reported explosions during a missile alert, and Mayor Vitali Klitschko said emergency services were fighting fires in the capital. Al Jazeera places the shelling in the context of a freshly signed drone agreement between the EU and Ukraine intended to bolster Ukrainian arms production. The FAZ additionally points to renewed deaths after Russian strikes in Zaporizhzhia and to the Russian accusation that Ukraine killed the chief engineer of a nuclear power plant; Kyiv responded cautiously, and the accusation is not independently confirmed. The Western and Ukrainian accounts emphasize the continued Russian terror against civilian infrastructure, while Moscow frames its attacks as a response to Ukrainian strikes. The shelling underscores that the war of attrition continues unabated despite diplomatic movement in Europe.
Al Jazeera · FAZ · AFP
Forecast · Assessment
●Most likely60%
Russia continues its missile and drone attacks on Ukrainian cities, while EU arms aid and drone cooperation gradually strengthen Ukraine's defenses.
▲Worst case20%
The attacks hit critical energy or nuclear infrastructure so severely that a humanitarian or nuclear emergency results.
▼Best case20%
Expanded air defenses and Western deliveries reduce the effectiveness of the attacks and give Kyiv room for negotiations.
Wednesday, 15 July 2026 · GeopoliticsKyiv reshuffles the government, Russia hits cargo ships in the Black Sea
Kyiv reshuffles the government, Russia hits cargo ships in the Black Sea
Ukraine has accepted the resignation of Prime Minister Yulia Svyrydenko, part of a leadership reshuffle initiated by President Zelensky; the head of the arms conglomerate Ukroboronprom also stepped down after a deadly Russian attack. At the same time, Russian forces fired on two more merchant ships off Odesa, killing one captain.
After only a year in office, Svyrydenko resigned at Zelensky's request; she brusquely turned down an offer to become ambassador in Washington ("Go to hell"), according to Ukrainska Pravda, as the independent Russian outlet Meduza reports. Herman Smetanin gave up leadership of Ukroboronprom after a Russian strike on a depot near Kyiv killed nine people. On these personnel changes the pro-government Turkish Daily Sabah and Meduza report largely in agreement. On the military situation the camps stress different things: the conservative Die Welt and The Wall Street Journal highlight Ukrainian successes, targeted drone strikes on Russian oil refineries that caused Moscow "big problems," and a sea drone that sank a Russian ship near an estate reputedly linked to Putin. Meduza documents the Russian side: the shelling of two cargo ships flying the Tanzanian and Liberian flags in the Black Sea corridor, with one captain killed and three wounded. Across the camps it is a fact that the war is raging on at the front, in the air and at sea simultaneously, and that Kyiv's leadership reshuffle comes in the midst of that strain.
Die Welt · Wall Street Journal · Daily Sabah · Meduza
Forecast · Assessment
●Most likely60%
The reshuffle consolidates Zelensky's control, and the war of attrition on land, in the air and at sea continues without any territorial shift.
▲Worst case15%
The attacks in the Black Sea corridor escalate and draw civilian shipping and coastal states into the war.
▼Best case25%
Ukrainian strikes on Russia's energy infrastructure and the government reshuffle improve Kyiv's position and open a window for negotiations.
Wednesday, 15 July 2026 · GeopoliticsAfter Graham's death: U.S. Senate advances tough Russia sanctions bill
After Graham's death: U.S. Senate advances tough Russia sanctions bill
The U.S. Senate is advancing a sanctions bill against Russia co-authored by the late Senator Lindsey Graham that would allow the president to impose tariffs of up to 100 percent on buyers of Russian oil and gas. Graham's sister Darline Graham Nordone is meanwhile taking over his Senate seat; Trump, once opposed to tough sanctions, now signals openness.
The bipartisan bill was Graham's foreign-policy legacy; after his death, supporters from both parties hope to pass it "in his honor," as The New York Times reports. The conservative Die Welt, which says it was able to review the draft, highlights the "powerful mechanism" and quotes gratitude for Trump's support. The Russian exile outlet Meduza, by contrast, points to a Wall Street Journal analysis according to which the "sanctions" bill is in truth a tariff bill: it would empower the president to impose punitive tariffs of up to 100 percent on the biggest buyers of Russian oil and gas, above all China and India; some Democrats fear it would hand Trump a trade weapon rather than a blow against Moscow. The Handelsblatt describes the draft soberly as a sign that both parties want to increase pressure on Russia and that Trump has given up his resistance. Serbia's B92 broadcaster brings a side front into focus: Trump dismissed conspiracy theories about Graham's death and said the FBI was "wasting its time." What remains contested is less the whether than the what for, an instrument against Moscow or a tariff lever against Beijing and New Delhi.
Die Welt · New York Times · Meduza · Handelsblatt · B92
Forecast · Assessment
●Most likely55%
The bill gains support in Graham's memory and is passed in watered-down form, but its tariff mechanism remains a mere threat.
▲Worst case20%
The president uses the 100 percent tariffs mainly as a trade weapon against China and India and ignites a broader trade war.
▼Best case25%
The bill increases targeted pressure on Moscow and strengthens Kyiv's negotiating position without dragging third countries into a tariff war.
Monday, 13 July 2026 · GeopoliticsRussia again strikes Kyiv and other cities with missiles
Russia again strikes Kyiv and other cities with missiles
Russian forces hit Kyiv and other Ukrainian cities overnight with a series of missile strikes. Authorities reported fires in several districts, while Moscow speaks of attacks on arms factories. In parallel, the Kremlin accuses Kyiv of an "unprecedented" campaign against civilian ships in the Sea of Azov.
The Sueddeutsche Zeitung reports fires in several Kyiv districts, including a burning warehouse; there was initially no information on casualties. The Russian Defense Ministry stated, according to Politika (state-aligned), that it had deliberately hit military factories in Kyiv. Moscow also reports that two sailors were killed in Ukrainian attacks on ships in the Sea of Azov and speaks of an "unprecedented" Ukrainian campaign against civilian vessels. Die Welt, in parallel, examines the use of increasingly autonomous Russian AI drones that identify targets on their own. The accounts of the warring parties are irreconcilable: Western and Ukrainian sources emphasize the shelling of residential areas, Russian ones the destruction of arms targets and their own civilian casualties.
Süddeutsche Zeitung · Politika · Die Welt
Forecast · Assessment
●Most likely65%
The Russian air raids and Ukrainian counterstrikes continue in the familiar pattern, without a territorial shift along the front.
▲Worst case15%
The escalation in the Sea of Azov and the drone war widen and draw civilian shipping and neighboring states more deeply into the conflict.
▼Best case20%
Western pressure from Paris and new air defense deliveries noticeably dampen the Russian attacks.
