Monday, 20 July 2026 · GeopoliticsTaiwan reports more Chinese ships, concern over Pacific supply routes
Taiwan is recording a sharp rise in Chinese ship activity and is warning of risks to Pacific supply routes. At the same time, Western reports decry a campaign by Beijing to economically and socially 'suffocate' Taiwan. US Secretary of State Rubio nonetheless affirmed that Xi Jinping's planned US visit stands.
Taiwan's authorities, according to Reuters, report a marked rise in Chinese ship movements near the island, stoking fears over the security of Pacific supply routes. The conservative Wall Street Journal describes a broadly conceived campaign by Beijing to 'suffocate' Taiwan, extending as far as children's choirs and cafe operators. Both accounts fit Taipei's warning of an escalating 'gray zone' coercion below the threshold of war. Beijing regards Taiwan as part of the People's Republic and treats such voyages as routine, while Western observers see in them a targeted wearing-down. Despite the tensions, US Secretary of State Marco Rubio said, according to Bloomberg, that President Xi's planned visit to the US remains on track, even after Washington accused China of interfering in the elections. The situation shows the coexistence of economic rapprochement at the highest level and mounting everyday pressure.
Reuters · Wall Street Journal · Bloomberg
Friday, 17 July 2026 · GeopoliticsRacist monkey video by Chinese state media outrages Manila
Racist monkey video by Chinese state media outrages Manila
An AI-generated video circulated by Chinese state media showing a monkey in Philippine dress has provoked sharp outrage in Manila. The Philippines condemned the depiction as racist. The incident comes during an already tense phase in the dispute over the South China Sea.
According to Reuters and Bloomberg, the video comes from the state newspaper China Daily and shows a monkey costumed as a Filipino, which Manila reads as a deliberate insult. Deutschlandfunk places the incident in the context of the South China Sea conflict, in which Beijing and Manila have been quarreling for months over reefs and sovereign rights. Bloomberg stresses the sensitivity of the timing, shortly before China's top diplomat is expected at a regional meeting in Manila. No official Chinese justification appears in the sources, and the outrage is described mainly from a Philippine and Western perspective. The case shows how state media extend the territorial dispute into a culture war.
Deutschlandfunk · Reuters · Bloomberg
Forecast · Assessment
●Most likely60%
Beijing does not clearly distance itself, and the incident sours the mood without breaking off diplomatic contact ahead of the regional meeting.
▲Worst case25%
The outrage escalates, the regional meeting is strained and the dispute in the South China Sea intensifies.
▼Best case15%
China withdraws the video and apologizes, temporarily easing the tensions.
Tuesday, 14 July 2026 · GeopoliticsSouth China Sea: China warns Europe against interference
South China Sea: China warns Europe against interference
In the dispute over the South China Sea, China is calling on Europe to show restraint. Chinese state media accuse the United States of using the Philippines as a pawn in its Asia-Pacific strategy.
The raw reports on this event come exclusively from Chinese state media, which makes the perspective one-sided and should be noted transparently. The state-affiliated agency Xinhua repeatedly calls on Europe to act prudently on South China Sea issues, an appeal intended to curb Western solidarity with the Philippines. The likewise state-affiliated Global Times takes a sharper approach, framing the US strategy it calls Pax Silica as an instrument that makes the Philippines a pawn in Washington's Asia-Pacific plans. Both sources share the thrust: the conflict is stoked from outside, above all by the United States. A Philippine, American or European counter-account is entirely absent from the raw reports, so China's self-portrayal as a prudent ordering power remains unchallenged here and must be viewed critically.
Xinhua · Global Times
Forecast · Assessment
●Most likely55%
The rhetorical exchange continues without leading to direct military escalation.
▲Worst case20%
An incident at sea between China and the Philippines draws the United States into open confrontation.
▼Best case25%
Diplomatic channels between China, the Philippines and the EU defuse the tensions.
Monday, 6 July 2026 · GeopoliticsRare Chinese Missile Test Unsettles Asia’s Neighbors
Rare Chinese Missile Test Unsettles Asia’s Neighbors
China has carried out a rare missile test, moving a step closer to an operational nuclear triad. The test unsettles its Asian neighbors.
According to The Economist, China has carried out a rare missile test that brings the country closer to an operational nuclear triad of land-, sea-, and air-based atomic weapons. A functional triad would significantly boost Beijing’s deterrence capability and shift the military balance of power in the region. Accordingly, the test unsettles China’s Asian neighbors, who already follow its military buildup with concern. The assessment comes from a single Western-liberal source; a Chinese account framing the test as routine or defensive is missing and should be kept in mind.
The Economist
Forecast · Assessment
●Most likely60%
China continues to expand its nuclear forces, while the neighbors respond with increased armament and closer US alliances.
▲Worst case15%
A regional arms race accelerates and raises the risk of miscalculation and incidents.
▼Best case25%
The test remains a one-off demonstration and leads to new arms-control or de-escalation talks in the region.
