Narrative thread · 4 events · Forecast hits 1/2

Hungary power struggle

Symbolic image

Bei der ungarischen Parlamentswahl im April 2026 wurde der seit 2010 regierende Nationalist Viktor Orbán abgewählt, die liberal-konservative Tisza-Partei von Péter Magyar gewann mit deutlichem Vorsprung und stellt seither die Regierung. Kurz nach seinem Wahlsieg forderte Magyar den Rücktritt von Staatspräsident Tamás Sulyok, einem von Orbán ins Amt gehobenen Vertrauten, den er als unwürdig bezeichnete, die Einheit der Nation zu verkörpern. Am 13. Juli 2026 verabschiedete das Parlament mit 139 zu nur sechs Stimmen eine Verfassungsänderung zur Absetzung Sulyoks aus dem weitgehend zeremoniellen Präsidentenamt, während Orbáns Fidesz-Partei die Abstimmung boykottierte und von einem beispiellosen Angriff auf die demokratische Ordnung sprach. Sulyok hat nun fünf Tage Zeit, das Gesetz zu unterschreiben, tut er dies nicht, hat die Tisza ein Amtsenthebungsverfahren angekündigt. Anhänger Orbáns waren bereits Anfang Juli gegen die geplante Absetzung auf die Straße gegangen, sodass der Machtkampf um das Präsidentenamt Mitte Juli 2026 den Übergang von der Orbán- zur Magyar-Ära in Ungarn symbolisiert.

Al JazeeraWashington PostBloomberg

Timeline in detail

Monday, 20 July 2026Geopolitics

Hungary: Magyar wants chess legend Judit Polgar as president

Hungary's prime minister Peter Magyar wants to nominate the former world-class chess player Judit Polgar as the new head of state. She is to hold the office until a new constitution is adopted, after the previous president Sulyok was voted out. Parliament still has to approve.

After the removal of President Tamas Sulyok, head of government Peter Magyar is proposing the former world's best chess player Judit Polgar for the highest state office; according to Serbia's B92, she is to hold the role on an interim basis until a new constitution is adopted. Conservative and liberal German outlets such as the FAZ and Die Zeit highlight Polgar's prominence and independence and read the appointment as a symbolic step by the new man in power. The move is part of the overhaul with which Magyar's Tisza camp is refilling the institutions after the end of the Fidesz era. Observers see in it, on the one hand, an orderly changing of the elites, while on the other, legal and rhetorical resistance from Fidesz circles remains a risk. The nomination still has to be confirmed by parliament. The available evidence so far rests mainly on Magyar's own announcement.

FAZDie ZeitDeutschlandfunkB92

Sunday, 19 July 2026GeopoliticsHungary's President Sulyok seals the end of his own term under pressure from Magyar

Hungary's President Sulyok seals the end of his own term under pressure from Magyar

Tamas Sulyok, the president close to Orban, signed a constitutional amendment ending his term at midnight on Sunday. Head of government Peter Magyar had threatened him with impeachment. The move is seen as a turning point in the dismantling of the Orban era.

After months of pressure from Prime Minister Peter Magyar, President Tamas Sulyok, appointed by Viktor Orban, signed a constitutional amendment adopted by the governing Tisza alliance that declares a serious loss of confidence and ends his mandate at midnight on Sunday. Bloomberg reads the move as the culmination of Magyar's rapid effort to dismantle the load-bearing pillars of the Orban era. Until a successor is elected, the speaker of parliament takes over on an interim basis, according to Le Monde. The state-aligned Serbian Politika and the independent B92 relay the view of the now-opposition Fidesz party, which speaks of open tyranny in Hungary. Western outlets such as the Guardian, by contrast, describe the process as an orderly, if unprecedented, transfer of power by legislative change. The camps agree on the sequence of events; the assessment ranges from democratic renewal to a dangerous precedent.

BloombergLe MondeThe GuardianPolitikaB92

Forecast · Assessment

Most likely55%
The transfer of power is carried out in an orderly fashion and a Tisza-aligned candidate takes over the presidency, while Fidesz pushes back legally and rhetorically.
Worst case20%
The dispute over the constitutional amendments escalates into an open constitutional crisis with protests and the intervention of European institutions.
Best case25%
The orderly transition stabilises Hungary's institutions and ushers in a thaw in relations with the EU.

Monday, 13 July 2026GeopoliticsHungary's parliament votes to remove Orban loyalist president

Hungary's parliament votes to remove Orban loyalist president

Hungary's parliament has passed a constitutional amendment allowing President Sulyok, a confidant of former Prime Minister Orban, to be removed from office. Prime Minister Peter Magyar defended the extraordinary step. Human rights organizations criticized the move.

Al Jazeera and the NYT report that parliament passed an amendment enabling the removal of President Sulyok, who was appointed under Orban. Head of government Peter Magyar, who had replaced Orban, defended the process as a necessary break with the old apparatus of power. Critics, including human rights groups, view the action as a problematic encroachment on the separation of powers. The sources (Gulf state-aligned and US center-left) report largely in sober, factual terms; a decidedly Orban-friendly counter-voice is missing from the selection, which makes the situation appear somewhat one-sidedly as a "clean-up."

Al JazeeraNew York Times

Forecast · Assessment

Most likely55%
The removal is carried out and Magyar fills the presidency anew, while Orban supporters and human rights groups push back legally and politically.
Worst case20%
The power struggle escalates into a constitutional crisis with street protests and an intervention by European institutions.
Best case25%
The transition proceeds in an orderly manner and ushers in a phase of reconciliation with EU institutions.

Sunday, 12 July 2026GeopoliticsHungary's parliament passes law to remove the president

Hungary's parliament passes law to remove the president

The Hungarian parliament passed a law enabling the removal of the head of state. The move is seen as part of a power realignment surrounding opposition leader Magyar.

On July 12, the Hungarian parliament passed a law allowing the removal of the head of state, according to Reuters. The move is placed in the context of the power struggle surrounding the rising challenger Peter Magyar, whose camp is working on a realignment of power relations. The range of sources on this day is extremely thin and one-sided, with only a single report, so that the precise motives, the people affected and the constitutional significance can only be assessed to a limited extent on the basis of the available information. What is clear is that the move comes in a politically charged environment ahead of important domestic political decisions.

Reuters

Forecast · Assessment

Most likely55%
The law becomes a lever in the Hungarian power struggle, leading to legal and political dispute, without a president actually being removed right away.
Worst case20%
The president is removed and the escalation plunges Hungary into an open constitutional crisis with sharp conflict with EU institutions.
Best case25%
Courts or public pressure stop the contested measure, and the power struggle shifts back into orderly electoral channels.